I speculate that Trump need not necessarily pull off a deal with Kim Jong Un in 2019, although that would be preferable. Trump could even do his own “October Surprise” by having a “Halloween agreement” days before the November 2020 election, and use its bounce to help win re-election while an initial agreement would lay the basis for second term negotiations with the North. If a Democrat wins the election, however, the only way he/she would deal with the North would be if Trump had already concluded a partial deal that requires the incoming President to follow through; otherwise, they won’t deal with Kim. In any case, Kim knows his best shot is with a re-elected Trump, and not with almost any of the potential Democratic candidates.

Many thanks to Arirang News reporter Oh Sooyoung, who has put together a very fine and balanced introductory piece on Trump’s 2020 kickoff. Here’s the link to it, broadcast at 7 am, June 19 from Seoul (my clip begins at 2:43; slightly modified versions of this video were broadcast later in the day):