Month: July 2019

North Korea knows that to be ignored by U.S. is to be virtually dead politically

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My Twitter thread unroll from July 26:

North Korea routinely goes through their gyrations until they are actually “ready” to negotiate. Until that point, they are immersed in their internal processes. They accommodate or adjust to no one until they evaluate they are ready.

Recall NK even postponed their June 2000 summit with Kim Dae Jung for a day without explanation. They just weren’t ready even though observers worried SK would get stiffed and the summit would get canceled. Remember July 27 is “Victory Day” for NK and it’s not surprising to see a military provocation and heated rhetoric in the run-up.

Far more than an invasion, NK fears being ignored by the U. S.  And with Trump’s frequent preoccupations with the “latest” issue (that a friend tells him about), such as Sweden’s detention of a U. S. rapper, it’s an even greater challenge for the North to keep Trump’s attention.

But no matter who is American president, NK knows that to be ignored by the U.S., to not have the undivided U. S. attention, is to be virtually dead politically. It’s not just about increasing leverage; it’s about avoiding being a political non-entity.

North Korean regime dynamics are definitely not well understood. Even when we think we understand, we judge based on our own values and perspective, not theirs. In the early ’50s, Nathan Leites wrote about the “operational code” of Soviet leaders. But NK is something else again.♦

North Korea and the Victim Mentality

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I posted on Twitter the following on July 1:

Sadat, Gorbachev and the Trump-Moon-Kim Panmunjeom Summit

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Here is my Twitter thread unroll, which has been greatly retweeted, on what happens when a major political actor breaks the mold and takes risks for peace:

“The DMZ trilateral meetings this weekend should be seen as on par with Sadat’s 1977 visit to Jerusalem, which led to the Camp David Accords; and, the rise of Gorbachev in the late 1980s with his efforts at Soviet reform. These events divided both regional actors and analysts alike. Sadat would pay for his efforts with his life. Many Soviet experts doubted Gorbachev’s efforts were for real until 1990, and some continued to doubt. Sadat’s journey to speak at the Knesset and negotiate peace with Israel; and Gorbachev’s reform efforts domestically and internationally were often derided and doubted. But both Sadat and Gorbachev broke the mold and went against conventional wisdom. What we saw at the DMZ on Sunday may have been in part theatrical but not theatrics. It was a three-way effort to get the Korean peninsula out of the deep hole it was cast into in August 1945, compounded by hot and cold war thereafter. Trump must take responsibility for his recklessness with Iran and trying to sell-out the Palestinians, but his efforts for Korea are in a totally different category.”

My Arirang News Interviews on Trump-Moon-Kim Panmunjeom Summit Weekend

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I was interviewed twice by Arirang News, as the wrap-up analyst after the Panmunjeom Summit on Sunday evening, June 30, and again assessing the meetings on Monday morning on July 1. Many, many thanks to anchors Han Da-eun, Mark Broome and anchor/reporter Oh Sooyoung. Here are the clips in chronological order: