Many thanks to Newsweek senior foreign policy writer Tom O’Connor for giving me the opportunity to comment today. Here’s the link to his Newsweek article on “Donald Trump’s Strategy to Walk, Not Talk, Is Making Life Difficult for Both Koreas.”

Trump’s sudden abandonment of his allies, the Syrian Kurds, to the Turks and their Arab militias has alarmed many Asian affairs analysts, myself included.

If Trump is re-elected to a second term in 2020, he may withdraw most of the 28,500 U.S. troops in stages from South Korea, leaving just one or two thousand behind so that the U.S.-ROK Mutual Security Treaty remains intact. While today, the U.S. defense perimeter against China includes South Korea (in contrast to January 1950, when it was excluded, which led to the Korean War), the President can insist on a massive drawdown of U.S. Forces Korea because the “South Koreans are rich, can take care of themselves and they don’t need us, and we’ll save a lot of money.”

He will argue we’re selling South Korea the most advanced F-35 fighter jets, transfer of UN Command operational control (OPCON) is smoothly transitioning to the ROK with a 2022 target, and the Japanese and even Israelis can help South Korea with its defense technology needs. The President will state this case in the early weeks of a second term and get his administration to carry it out over four years. As the U.S. retreats to a 1930s-style isolationism, which contributed to the outbreak of World War II in both Europe and the Pacific, South Korea will have to realign itself vis a vis China and Russia, even if its frayed relations with Japan somewhat improve.

As Trump now demands a five-fold increase in the ROK’s contribution to U.S. troop support in South Korea, it’s like blackmail for protection money: “Pay up or we’ll leave.” And it seems the main U.S. interest in maintaining the alliance is to potentially use South Korean troops outside the Korean peninsula in the “Indo-Pacific” theater. Otherwise, let the South Koreans defend themselves. Japan is next to be strong-armed to pay a usurious amount to keep U.S. troops there, and Trump may withdraw from NATO in a second term.

U.S. withdrawal of all but 500 military advisors left South Korea highly vulnerable after its 1948 independence, and the Chinese communist victory in 1949 coupled with placing South Korea outside the U.S. defense perimeter in 1950 set the stage for the Korean War. Today, China won’t seek war, but would seek to Finlandize North Korea and neutralize South Korea until Korea reunites under Chinese patronage.

This is the fruit of “America First.” The Kurds threw potatoes at withdrawing American troops last month. What will our other allies throw? ♦