I was asked by a member of my graduate institution’s board of trustees for my observations on President Trump’s recent offer of coronavirus assistance to North Korea. Here’s an edited version of how I responded:

“Trump’s letter to Kim Jong Un about COVID-19 assistance was a good gesture and it keeps their personal relationship going, but should not be taken literally. Trump’s purpose is to keep the North Korean issue out of the limelight until past November, and in part, this was an easy way to do that. North Korea is very selective about medical aid (as opposed to food aid) because it doesn’t want outside health experts to see the true extent of their problem. And any U.S. offer of medical aid would likely require waiving of specific sanctions by the UN; the sanctions against North Korea are very pervasive, making it excruciatingly difficult for even NGOs like Doctors Without Borders to get wanted equipment and medicine in. And the President would not like the appearance of some sanctions being exempt because it would look like the U.S. is loosening up its pressure. So it’s a Catch-22: The U.S. is willing to help North Korea with the virus, but to actually provide meaningful help, North Korea would, in effect, first have to fully denuclearize and only then would sanctions be lifted, which the DPRK will not do. And there is no possibility of an interim deal with Trump — just like in real estate, where the sale of a property is a one-shot deal, not an ongoing business relationship. And yet the North is only willing to do incremental deals.”♦

See “U.N. Calls for Rolling Back Sanctions to Battle Pandemic” for the UN Secretary General’s perspective. And also this op-ed: “How Trump Can Change Sanctions to Allow Anti-Coronavirus Aid to North Korea.“

I was quoted yesterday by Radio Free Asia’s Korean service about the DPRK Foreign Ministry statement issued March 19 that it is a land free of coronavirus cases.

Here is the original Korean:

북 외무성 ‘코로나19 전무’ 성명… 김정은 업적 홍보?

And below is a machine translation into English:

https://www.translatetheweb.com/?from=ab&to=en&a=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfa.org%2Fkorean%2F

I provide my full email comments below. Many thanks to writer Albert Hong:

“While I don’t believe North Korea has zero cases of COVID-19, I do believe its political system of social control and existing capabilities of its medical system give it the ability to keep the actual number of cases under control and to monitor them well. As to why the DPRK made this announcement, it’s probably to say something that praises their regime rather than remaining silent at this time.

“Moreover, on management of the coronavirus threat, they are showcasing China’s praise of the DPRK’s handling of this situation, as well as pointing out the inability of nations like the U.S. and European countries to quickly and properly deal with this pandemic. It’s a way of saying Asian authoritarian regimes know how to successfully manage public health emergencies.”♦

Arirang News has a new interview program at 8 am weekdays hosted by Oh Sooyoung called “Arirang News Global Insight.” Today, I was interviewed on North Korea’s second rocket test this year along with Dr. Graham Ong-Webb, Research Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. We discussed what North Korea may be trying to achieve in the eyes of the world by continuing to conduct artillery strike drills involving multiple rocket launchers:

I provided my comments today to Radio Free Asia’s Korean service on what likely would be leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s policy toward North and South Korea:

Original Korean post:

“바이든, 실질적 합의 없인 대북관계 개선 않을 것”

English machine translation:

https://www.translatetheweb.com/?from=ab&to=en&a=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rfa.org%2Fkorean%2Fin_focus%2Fnk_nuclear_talks%2Fbidennk-03052020154201.html

And here are my full comments as provided by email. Many thanks to Albert Hong:

“The Democratic Party has not had a good track record with North Korea since the Obama administration, unlike under the Clinton administration that negotiated the Agreed Framework in 1994. At best, under Obama, it had been one of benign neglect, and under President Trump, Democrats seem to have tried to sabotage his efforts in 2018-19 to engage North Korea. Nancy Pelosi apparently is extremely distrustful of North Korea (as she conveyed to the Speaker of the ROK National Assembly) and appeared to have deliberately scheduled Michael Cohen’s long-awaited House testimony while Trump was in Hanoi in late February 2019 while he was meeting Kim Jong Un – just to unnerve and distract Trump. In a sense, Pelosi helped contribute to the failure of the Hanoi summit.

“Unfortunately, I do not see a Biden administration changing the current policy of comprehensive sanctions and probably it would ramp joint military exercises back to normal (see Biden’s declared policy on North Korea here). If Trump had laid a foundation with Kim that led to an interim nuclear agreement, then if elected, Biden could build on that; but without any substantive agreement, Biden will likely not make any moves to improve relations with North Korea. However, Biden would not attempt to withdraw any U.S. troops from South Korea or demand excessive payment by the ROK to maintain American forces, whereas if reelected, Trump will likely draw down U.S. Forces Korea to about 4,000-5,000 and explain this drawdown is because the ROK refused to pay its fair share. This will have a very damaging impact to regional security in Northeast Asia.

“In contrast, Bernie Sanders has said he would be willing to meet with Kim Jong Un, but Sanders may no longer have a realistic path to the nomination given events in the last few days.”♦

Photo at top: Vice President Joe Biden visited Observation Post Ouellette at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on December 7, 2013 in Panmunjom, South Korea. 

 

Arirang News in Seoul has introduced a new interview program at 8 am weekdays hosted by Oh Sooyoung called “Arirang News Global Insight.” Today I was interviewed on North Korea’s first rocket test for 2020 along with Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo of King’s College, London. It became a wide-ranging discussion, including on how the DPRK may factor into the U.S. presidential election:

Also, a segment based on the above interview was broadcast later in the day: