I was interviewed this morning (Seoul time) on Arirang News Global Insight on the second anniversary of the Panmunjeom Summit, along with Dr. John Nilsson-Wright, senior university lecturer in international relations at Cambridge University, and Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum, ROK Army (Ret.). Many thanks again to Oh Sooyoung for putting together a great segment.
My commentary today (Korea time) on Arirang News’ daily morning interview program “Global Insight,” along with Jeongmin Kim, Seoul correspondent for NK News. Many thanks to anchor Oh Sooyoung for organizing this segment on matters that are very daunting to confirm.
My emailed comments were included in two Radio Free Asia Korean service articles written before and after the Supreme People’s Assembly meeting on April 12. Many thanks to writer Albert Hong.
Original April 6 article in Korean:
English machine translation:
Original April 13 article in Korean:
“북 최고인민회의 전 코로나19 철저한 검사 이뤄졌을 것”
English machine translation:
My comments in full provided to Radio Free Asia:
April 6 comments:
“The upcoming SPA meeting is significant in that it is being held during a global pandemic, as a way of showing that North Korea is functioning normally. If attendees do not wear masks, that will be telling. Of course, it is customary to hold an SPA meeting prior to Kim Il Sung’s birthday. Budgets will be discussed and some personnel reshuffles announced. Kim Jong Un may address the SPA, but we will know only after the fact. The summary of his speech, if given, by KCNA will be the most significant outcome of the SPA, whatever its content. But I do not expect any surprises, except surely the economy has taken a hit by the reduction in trade with China and we do have to be concerned about food security this spring, in addition to the actual public health impact of COVID-19.”
April 13 comments:
“I believe that the SPA was postponed by two days mainly so each participant could be thoroughly checked for temperature and other signs of COVID-19 symptoms. Indeed, there were no masks, no Photoshopped masks (as has been the case with many KCNA photos), and no effort to leave empty seats between SPA members (social distancing). The SPA was intended to portray business as usual — no DPRK problem with COVID-19 cases. However, Kim Jong Un staying away from the SPA meeting and only presiding over the Politburo meeting of about 30 people probably was intended as a precautionary measure to limit his exposure to just a few medically-cleared officials. The DPRK evidences clear awareness of the dangers of COVID-19, but claims 100% success in preventing an outbreak due to its efforts to close borders and quarantine those who may exhibit symptoms. Their emphasis has to be on Pyongyang, where an outbreak would have the most serious impact and would be eventually known to the outside world.”
My Twitter thread of April 3:
In December 1994, at the earliest signs of North Korea’s famine, my colleague, an NGO leader in Washington, DC, was asked by Kim Jong Il’s inner circle if he could request food assistance for the DPRK from European capitals. The European diplomats on the continent he met were very surprised at the DPRK’s request, thinking the North was able to feed itself, but nonetheless responded to him favorably. But days later, the ROK government of that time, aware of my colleague’s inquiries, specifically contacted each European government my colleague met with and strongly insisted North Korea was perfectly fine and would not need food assistance. The rest is history; the famine occurred in 1995-96 with great loss of life.
The lesson is when North Korea quietly contacts international NGOs seeking the assistance of the outside world, that may be the only warning we get of an impending domestic public health or food security disaster. When the DPRK reaches out, out of pride, they never scream for help. But by reaching out, they are acknowledging they could get hit by a tidal wave of problems they can’t control. So for COVID-19, the U.S. must look beyond what’s happening on the surface, and probe to see if these are warning signs of an internal DPRK health crisis. If that proves to be the case, Trump’s offer to Kim of medical assistance takes on new meaning.♦
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