Intro to Arirang News’ “Global Insight” interview program for June 17, 2020 Korea time:

“After threatening to take military action against South Korea, North Korea blew up the inter-Korean contact office on Tuesday — this after weeks of strong rhetoric against the South, and upon the 20th anniversary of the two Koreas’ joint declaration for peace and cooperation. What is behind this recent surge of aggression and how far will North Korea go? To delve into this issue, I’m joined by Chun In-bum, retired Lieutenant General and Commander of the Special Warfare Command of the Republic of Korea Army and Dr. Mark P. Barry, an analyst based in New York who’s been following North Korea for more than three decades.”

Many thanks to anchor Sooyoung Oh for making this discussion possible. Here’s the segment:

Gen. Chun also returned for the program’s June 19 segment here.

My Arirang News “Global Insight” interview today, with NK News’ Jeongmin Kim, on North Korea’s latest provocative behavior, and the changing geopolitical environment in Northeast Asia. I  look at the larger picture and why North Korea is likely to be struggling to readjust to long-term changes in the Northeast Asia strategic environment vis a vis China and the U.S. In some ways, for the DPRK, 2020 is reminiscent of 1990. As always many thanks to anchor Sooyoung Oh.♦

Here’s the full video segment:

These are my full emailed comments to Radio Free Asia today. I don’t know how much they will use, but thought I’d get it out there as soon as I could:

I had thought that sending balloons with leaflets to North Korea had stopped two years ago. In any case, I do not believe they effectively reach North Korean people, not in the way that smuggled USB sticks and microSD cards can (containing video/audio content they want to see). A North Korean citizen picking up a leaflet that lands could be arrested if seen, and his/her family punished. I believe this is merely publicity for those sending the balloons and those that back them; it makes for good photos and YouTube videos. This leaflet activity does not truly help the North Korean people; it helps the South Korean groups sending the balloons and it is a tool for domestic South Korean politics. In any case, it’s not clear to me that the ROK government will in fact do anything about it in the longer run.

But I see a much bigger story here, and it comes from my gut feeling rather than clear-cut evidence:

I’m beginning to think Kim Yo Jong may become the day-to-day leader in North Korea, on behalf of her older brother, who will – for whatever reason – appear much less often. I see that look in her face, as if that responsibility has already been put upon her.

And Kim Jong Un may send his sister to the South again, like in February 2018, to discreetly propose that the two Koreas come up with mutually supportive policies to deflect Chinese pressure upon both Koreas and to deal with the likelihood of a progressive withdrawal of the United States from safeguarding the ROK (and in fact the Korean peninsula). In my experience, in private, senior DPRK officials have never objected to some U.S. troop presence in the South because it has kept the Armistice intact (i.e., prevented another war) and it functions as leverage against Chinese encroachment.

The writing on the wall, Kim Jong Un may sense, is that China will make moves this year and next year to progressively diminish North Korea’s economic and political sovereignty, which the U.S. may not bother to prevent because of President Trump’s intention to reduce overseas engagement and, in particular, compel the ROK to defend itself on its own while drawing down U.S. Forces Korea if re-elected.

In such an environment, despite the overt North Korean attacks on South Korea, what may really be happening is Kim could be discreetly attempting to reach out to President Moon in the remaining months of his presidential term to create a new modus vivendi — an accommodation — that would enable the two Koreas to work more in tandem (although not in unison) to deflect Chinese pressure upon the peninsula in an enlarging vacuum created by U.S. retreat. This could lay a basis for more consistent inter-Korean policy cooperation and later ongoing partnership.

They will be stronger together than apart. And Kim Yo Jong may have her work cut out for her internally and with regard to South Korea in the months ahead.

Again, this is my gut feeling, but I do think North Korea watchers need to discard old notions in a fast-changing environment.♦