I was interviewed again tonight on Arirang News’ “New Day” program about the current state of the Ukraine crisis, and the U.S., EU/NATO and Chinese responses:

Here is a synopsis of the questions and my responses:

1. Russia continues to insist it has no intention of invading Ukraine. If that was truly the case, why do they have so many troops lined up along the border? And, do you foresee Moscow actually going ahead with an invasion or is this mostly posturing?

For now, Russia seems to be posturing to extract concessions through threats, and to weaken, even fracture, the dated NATO alliance. Already Germany is taking a more equidistant position between NATO and Russia, and France, Britain and other NATO members are nervous. Overall, this is Putin’s effort to overturn the post-Cold War order that has existed since 1992 and to reestablish a security environment more favorable to Russia. Curiously, there is no popular fervor among Russians for Putin’s tough talk against Ukraine, and Ukrainian national security officials say the U.S. is overreacting to Russia’s current military buildup.

2. How do you assess President Biden’s handling of the crisis? He made the incursion comment which ruffled a lot of feathers, including Ukraine’s. His critics argue that, on foreign policy, Biden has had a terrible 12 months, including the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. Is this crisis partly due to world powers sensing U.S. weakness under Biden’s leadership?

Putin is also taking advantage of Biden’s attention being largely on domestic matters as well as of the U.S. humiliation from its botched Afghanistan withdrawal. At his Jan. 19 press conference, Biden answered the New York Times’ David Sanger’s question on Ukraine with relish, but made a gaffe when he said Putin would eventually invade Ukraine and a minor Russian incursion may elicit a proportional US response. The White House and Biden himself had to clarify those comments the next day. Some likened Biden’s remarks to Dean Acheson’s Jan. 1950 statement that South Korea lay outside the US defense perimeter, which Stalin took as a signal to prepare the North’s invasion of the South six months later.

3. President Putin will attend the opening of the Beijing Olympics early next month and have a summit with President Xi while he’s there, in which they’ll certainly discuss Ukraine. Since China wants to make a success of the Games and no major distraction, what message do you expect Xi to convey to Putin?

President Xi presides over a China that’s had broad options in its foreign policy and a coordinated partnership with Russia. But Xi will not tolerate Putin carrying on in a reckless manner and becoming a liability to China’s interests. Right now, Putin is employing threats with diplomacy, and I expect he’ll take no military action against Ukraine in the lead-up to the Winter Olympics, and maybe even weeks afterward, because this is China’s moment on the world stage, and Xi will emphasize this to Putin when they meet. Russia did provoke Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics, but China chose to ignore it. Both countries had different leaders 14 years ago, Hu Jintao and Medvedev, but today everything is different.

4. Finally, for most people who don’t pay close attention to world affairs, even those that do, this crisis seemed to come out of left field. Is this something that has been brewing for some time? And why is coming to such a head right now?

Putin has long considered the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union to be Russia’s single greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. He’s trying to rebuild the buffer zone of friendly states Russia once had. Also, for Putin, it’s a red line for a state bordering Russia that had been a Soviet socialist republic since 1922, unlike the Baltic states, to become a NATO member or even to remain pro-Western as Ukraine has since 2014. Putin will not tolerate a democratic-leaning nation on its borders. That’s why the UK Foreign Office reported Putin may try to install a pro-Russia leadership in Ukraine. Putin also knows February is the best month for tanks as the ground in Ukraine is frozen, while it turns muddy in March. Overall, the steps you’ve mentioned that the U.S. and NATO are taking right now are precautionary and not out of the ordinary in this situation.♦

I was interviewed today on Arirang News’ morning newscast “New Day” about North Korea’s claimed hypersonic missile test of January 5 as well as today’s launch of an as-yet-to-be-identified projectile. I point out, in part, that the North could consider selling some of its advanced technology to a bad actor in a different region  in order to compel U.S. attention. Many thanks to co-anchors Mark Broome and Kim Mok-yeon for the opportunity to express these views.