I was interviewed today by Arirang News on its “New Day” program on China’s National People’s Congress meeting this past weekend as well as on the predicament it is in by supporting Russia’s policies toward Ukraine.

Below are the edited questions and my answers:

Q: Before we get to the meeting, let’s start with Beijing’s stance on the war in Ukraine. The CCP has flat-out refused to condemn Russia and has even refrained from calling it an “invasion” in the first place. Can you explain Beijing’s reasoning behind this?

A: First, with Russia’s Ukraine invasion, we’re now in uncharted waters. Last week’s Russian shelling of Ukraine’s largest nuclear facility is something that’s never happened before. Fortunately, no reactor was hit. But if electricity or plumbing were damaged, there could have been a meltdown far greater than Chernobyl, poisoning Russia, Europe and the world. Was this at all rational?

Now, supportive Chinese rhetoric aside, Xi Jinping seems to have had no idea Russia’s Ukraine invasion would be so extensive or of long duration, despite surely being informed of it on Feb. 4 by Putin. Xi also didn’t expect the global support mobilized on Ukraine’s behalf and rapid sanctioning of Russia. China hoped to look the other way as Ukraine was invaded, but now it’s in a situation where it may have to bail out Russia economically, meaning China would have to take on not one but two basket cases: North Korea and Russia. Also, Russia historically never has been trustworthy to China: Not only were there serious Sino-Soviet border skirmishes in the 1950s and ’60s, but in 1929, Stalin briefly invaded northern Manchuria to take control of the Chinese Eastern Railway, which terminated at a seaport (the Sino-Soviet rift is why Nixon went to Beijing 50 years ago). President Xi knows at any time, for any reason, Putin could pivot and even militarily threaten China to obtain what he wants.

Q: Do you share the view of many in Taiwan that Russia’s actions could preview a Chinese invasion of their island? Also, if China were to attack Taiwan, how would you expect the international community to react? Strongly-worded statements? Sanctions? Or an all-out military response?

A: China must be rethinking its options over Taiwan given the international reaction to Ukraine. But many military analysts doubt China currently has the amphibious assault capability to invade Taiwan. Moreover, Taiwan is the golden goose: An invasion would kill its vibrant economy. Taiwan reportedly may plan to sabotage its world-class chip fabrication plants, like TSMC, so China wouldn’t be able to use them after invasion. Finally, the U.S., as Taiwan’s main arms supplier and the chief guarantor of security in the sea lanes of communication in the South China Sea region, is highly likely to come to Taiwan’s defense if attacked, supported by Japan, Australia, and even by South Korea.

Q: Turning back to China’s National People’s Congress. As we noted, many experts expect a big reshuffle as President Xi prepares to start his third term. Is this because Xi wants young blood who will be unbendingly loyal to him or do think there are other reasons?

A: The main reason Xi has to reshuffle new personnel is to prevent the formation or strengthening of factions against him. There is opposition to Xi, and he knows where it comes from. So, Xi weakens pockets of opposition by reshuffling and bringing in new blood, so he can guarantee re-appointment as leader at the party congress later this year. There are some in China’s leadership unhappy with his imposition of highly centralized authority reminiscent of China under Mao, and disturbed by the curbs placed on China’s most prominent entrepreneurs.

[last question cut for time]

Q: Finally, ever since the pandemic crippled the world, China’s rivalry with and overt aggression toward the U.S. and the West only seems to have intensified. In your view, and based on what we know about the Xi Jinping doctrine, what is China’s end game?

A: I don’t see China as a territorially expansionist power, like Russia. But, it wants to supplant the U.S. as the dominant global power, so that the preponderance of global trade is conducted under Chinese auspices. China wants to make the world safe for its mercantilist policy but it would bestow protections upon countries that accede to its preeminence. Yet, China is quite nervous about its border regions which traditionally were not part of the core of Chinese empires, like Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia, as well as special areas like Hong Kong and Taiwan. To ensure stability, China has conducted oftentimes severe repressive policies against the peoples in its border regions to protect the core of Chinese power.

Photo at top: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.