I was interviewed early this morning, along with Dr. Go Myong-hyun of The Asan Institute, on the new Arirang News current affairs program, “Within the Frame,” just prior to the commencement of the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s military. It was also the day after Kim Jong Un and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, were seen at a dinner banquet for military leaders with their daughter, Ju-ae (see above photo).  The military parade began about 90 minutes after this live broadcast concluded. Many thanks to host Kim Bo-kyoung for her questions.

Due to time, this question was cut. My prepared answer is below:

Q. What would be North Korea’s position on this matter [of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons] as well? How do you think the North would consider such a discussion? And if South Korea does continue such discussion on having its own nuclear capabilities, would it get even harder for the North to get back to the negotiating table?

A: North Korea will become even more provocative, if only because Kim’s generals will warn him of a rising SK threat, and insist he respond. But I think Kim’s main concern is the overall balance of power in NE Asia, and he cannot protect NK’s sovereignty and independence for too long without balancing his ties with China and Russia with new-found relations with the US and its allies. Kim may be unable to appreciate SK’s justified concern over the reliability of its alliance with the US. But what former Secretary of State Pompeo wrote in his new book, that Kim told him he needs US troops in SK to deter China, is credible. I heard the same words in 1994 from Secretary Kim Yong Sun, who was the #3 leader in North Korea at that time. To Pompeo, Kim Jong Un compares China’s view of the role of the Korean peninsula to that of Tibet and Xinjiang, which China controls to protect its core. The real issue for NK is if the US can ever establish a reliable relationship with the North, which Kim’s experience with President Trump tells him “no.”